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A Mathematical Model of Primary State Formation

American Museum of Natural History

Primary state formation is when a first-generation state evolves in a context of pre-existing non-state societies. A dynamic model of this process is developed, drawing upon concepts from evolutionary anthropology and archaeology, as well as from evolutionary ecology, systems theory, and complexity theory. Differential equations are used to model: (1) the dynamics of political growth in chiefdoms (societies with centralized but not internally specialized authority); and (2) the formation of states (societies with centralized and also internally specialized authority). A major conclusion of the exercise is that the emergence of a primary state is likely to be accompanied by a considerable expansion in the political-economic (sustaining) territory of the polity.

Key Words: chiefdom • cultural evolution • political economy • state • state formation

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